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Blackjack odds and Probabilities Explained

Blackjack odds and Probabilities Explained

As with all other casino games online, the game of Blackjack is largely based on the element of luck. So, there’s no way to know what the final outcome of any gameplay round in Blackjack will be. However, the game of Blackjack allows players to use playing strategies to improve their chances of winning.

In order to play Blackjack effectively and use Blackjack betting strategies, it’s important for players to have knowledge about Blackjack probabilities and odds. As such, here’s an article that takes a look at everything you need to know about these Blackjack concepts.

Odds and probability basics

Before diving deep, let’s take a look at what the concepts of odds and probability actually mean. First, probability is a separate branch in mathematics that deals with how likely an event is going to occur. In the game of Blackjack, probability helps players in knowing the chances of their specific hands winning or losing against a dealer.

To calculate probability, you need to take the favourable occurrences and divide them by the total number of occurrences. As you’d guess, probability can either be expressed in the form of a percentage or it can be given in the decimal system.

Let’s say a player wants to determine the likelihood of getting a specific card from a standard card deck. With no jokers, a traditional deck contains 52 cards in total. And the probability of each of these cards being drawn from the deck is the same as other cards.

By using the formula for calculating probability, for instance, the chances of drawing King of Clubs in Blackjack games are 1 in 52. In percentage form, it becomes 1/52 = 1.92%. As there are four Kings in a card deck, the probability of getting any King is 4 in 52 (or 4/52 = 7.369%).

Now coming towards odds, we can say that they are related to probability. But note that odds and probability aren’t exactly the same things. Unlike probability where we calculate the likelihood of winning outcomes, odds are expressed as the likelihood of the occurrence of an event divided by the likelihood that the event won’t happen. That way, the odds of getting a King of Clubs from a standard card deck are 1 to 51 (1:51). As for the true odds of drawing any King, they are 4 to 48 in games with standard Blackjack dealer rules.

Odds of winning Blackjack

In most Blackjack variations, the odds of you winning the game can go up to 42.22%. But that isn’t to say that the odds of the casino winning are 57.78%. The reason for it is that there’s another possible outcome in the game of Blackjack – a push. On average, around 8.48% of Blackjack gameplay rounds result in a push. So, the chances of you losing the game are around 49.10%.

It’s important to note that the Blackjack odds are based on several factors, including gameplay rules and the Blackjack variant you choose to play at the online casino. Also, players who don’t use a playing strategy may see their winning odds decreasing to a great extent. As such, you should always make calculated decisions and ensure that you know all the rules of your chosen Blackjack title.

A quick primer on Blackjack RTP

In an ideal setting, the game of Blackjack will pay out at true odds. But this isn’t the case in reality. The reason for that is the built-in house edge that European Blackjack and all other casino games come with.

Simply put, house edge is the mathematical advantage that a casino has over its players. In other words, house edge is the way a gambling platform generates revenue and prevents itself from incurring losses in the long run.

Casino RTP, which expresses the percentage amount that players will get back in theory, is largely based on the house edge. So, if you are aware of the game’s house edge, you can easily figure out what its RTP will be.

For example, classic Blackjack comes with a theoretical house edge of 0. 59%. By using the definition of Return to Player percentage, the RTP rate for this game would be 99.41%. So, for every hundred you wager on the game, you can expect to receive 99.59 in the long run.


As mentioned earlier, it’s possible for players to use playing strategies to improve their winning chances in Blackjack. But in order to do that, it’s important for them to get acquainted with Blackjack card value rules and every aspect of the game. Having an understanding of the Blackjack odds and probabilities allows players in knowing the main concept that lies behind the Blackjack game and also gives them the chance to make informed decisions at the table.